What happened on Tuesday | interest.co.nz
Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No change today.
CHANGES IN TERM DEPT RATES
None here either.
FIRST SIGN OF WEAKNESS?
Auckland’s Dominant Real Estate Agent reports the average sale price for properties traded in September fell by -51,000 from its July peak. Their September sales volumes were down -40% from September last year.
The ANZ Global Commodity Price Index rose + 1.5% in September, partially offsetting the decline of the previous month. Dairy and forestry products both regained ground, and prices for aluminum and meat (especially lamb) were strong. But this gain was suppressed in NZD terms as the local currency appreciated during the month.
The results of the NZIER Quarterly Business Opinion Survey was not quite what many experts expected. BNZ sums it up this way: âToday’s NZIER Quarterly Business Opinion Survey produced a set of results that can be described as bizarre. On the one hand, the survey tells us that capacity constraints are extreme and that the labor market an immediate response from the RBNZ. On the other hand, it looks like companies have no intention of raising prices, cost pressures are under control and inflation threatens to drop to the lower end of the target band. of the RBNZ. But demand continues, so the RBNZ is still expected to increase OCR tomorrow.
The Serious Fraud Office has opened an investigation into Options Trading and Investments NZ Limited (Options Trading), currently in liquidation, and Tiavare Richard Curtis Joseph, also known as Ritchie Wineera. Damien Grant is the liquidator and probably initiated the action.
FISHER FUNDS BUY AON’S SUPER BUSINESS
Fisher Funds said it has entered into an agreement to acquire the retirement business of Aon New Zealand, which includes the Aon New Zealand KiwiSaver and Master Trust program.
DOSH LIVE DIGITAL WALLET APP
Dosh, a digital wallet app, is now live. It’s available on the Apple and Google app stores and allows people to send money to each other any time of the week. Small business owners can now instantly accept payments via a QR code with Dosh. Red Bird Ventures, a subsidiary of Westpac, is also launching a payment app called Buck.
ALL SIGNS SUGGEST A MODEL RISE IN DAIRY PRICES
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning, and derivatives markets suggest that the price of WMP will increase by + 1.5% and the price of SMP will increase by + 2.5%. If that happens, it will be the fourth straight increase. It will be helped by a -0.6% devaluation of the NZD since the previous event.
In Australia, there are rumors that Fonterra is about to sell its business there to Bega. Fonterra is also considering leaving it via an IPO.
THE REDUCED INFLUENCE OF OWNERSHIP
Last week on the NZX50, the real estate industry suffered a much larger pullback than the overall market. The eight companies in this sector lost -2.2% of their capitalization during the week, compared to the overall maintenance. These companies are now worth 8.9% of the overall market. A year ago, they represented 9.1%. The biggest drop last week was in Goodman Property (GMT, # 15) which lost -4.7% during the week.
THE MARKETS ARE WAITING FOR THE REPORTED RISE
The RBNZ will revise its OCR rate tomorrow and it is expected to drop significantly from 0.25% to 0.5%. The markets have this price. If they do not rise higher, the market reaction will be intense and rapid. The RBA examined its settings at 4.30 p.m. today. No changes were planned there, and none happened.
BIG BOOST TO SHARE OPTIONS ON EQUITIES
KÄinga Ora a launched a shareholding plan to help homeowners with low deposits. The makeup of shared ownership will be determined by several factors including: the amount of your deposit, how much a participating lender is willing to lend you, and how much KÄinga Ora will contribute towards purchasing the home with you. For example, you might have saved 10% of the purchase price of a house and a participating bank is willing to lend you 75%. KÄinga Ora then contributes 15% to buy the house with you in exchange for a 15% ownership share in the house.
All the talk of the beginning of the year about droughts and âwater crisesâ is now gone. The lakes and reservoirs are now all “normal” or no longer full. In this case, “normal” means the long-term average (over 90 years).
Australia reported a record trade surplus of A $ 15 billion for the month for both goods and services. It was half as much as analysts expected. The surge in exports of natural gas and coal was much stronger than expected.
CHANGED PANDEMIC PRESSURE
While staying in Australia, there was a Delta explosion case in victoria with 1,763 cases reported there today in a “very serious jump” all from the AFL holidays. There are now 14,368 active cases in the state. In NSW there was another 608 new community cases reported today with 438 others not attributed to known clusters. They now have 8,553 active locally acquired cases, which is less, but they had 6 deaths yesterday. Queensland is now report two new cases. ACT has 33 new cases. Overall in Australia, over 57% of eligible Australians are fully vaccinated, and 23% have only had one injection so far. There was two new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 24 others in the community. So far, 49% of eligible Kiwis now have both vaccines, an additional 31% the initial shot. So far, New Zealand’s vaccination effort is weakening slightly (79.4% of Kiwis and increasing more slowly) and the Australian is gaining new momentum with theirs now rising to 79.6%.
Compared to where this time around yesterday, the price of gold is up + US $ 3 to US $ 1,764 / oz in early Asian trading. But it’s down -US $ 7 from the New York market close earlier today.
RED SEA ACTIONS EXPANDS
The S & P500 ended its Monday session down -1.3% on Wall Street. The Tokyo market opened today down more than -3.0%. Hong Kong opened down -0.6% after yesterday’s large pullback. Shanghai misses all of this on vacation and won’t reopen until Friday. The ASX200 is down -0.7% at the start of the afternoon. The NZX50 is down -1.2% at the end of the session here.
SWAP RATES & MIXED BONDS
We do not yet have today’s swap closing rates. They probably flattened out slightly. We’ll update this if there are significantly different changes when the end-of-day data arrives. The 90-day bank note rate is up +1 bp to 0.62% ahead of tomorrow’s OCR decision. The benchmark ten-year Australian government rate is now at 1.51% and up +3 basis points from the same time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.89% and unchanged. The 10-year New Zealand government rate is now at 2.00%, unchanged, but again above the previous RBNZ fix for that rate at 1.98% (-2bp). The ten-year US government is now at 1.48% and up +2 basis points from same time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has now risen to 69.4 USc. Against the Aussie, we maintain 95.5 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 59.8 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now just over 73.1, and back in the middle of the 72-74 range we’ve been in for most of the past eleven months.
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The price of bitcoin is now at US $ 49,185 and up + 2.9% from where we were yesterday this time around. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate to high at just +/- 3.0%.
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