AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Traders eye .6548 for break up ahead of US GDP data

The Aussie dollar is heading higher early Thursday after hitting its highest level since Oct. 6 of the previous session. The rally was fueled by speculation that the US Federal Reserve would announce a slower pace of interest rate hikes from December at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Hopes for a Fed decision are fueled by weaker-than-expected US housing data this week and a contraction in the PMI report on business activity.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the trend is downward. A trade through .6548 will change the main trend to the upside. A move through .6170 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also up. This is momentum control. A trade through .6211 will change the minor downtrend.

AUD/USD closed on the strong side of a long-term Fibonacci level at 0.6466, making it a support. Next support is a minor pivot at .6341.

On the upside, resistance is an intermediate 50% level at 0.6543, followed by an intermediate 61.8% level at 0.6631.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Traders’ reaction to the long-term Fibonacci level at 0.6466 should determine the direction of AUD/USD on Thursday.

Bullish scenario

A sustained move above 0.6466 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough bullish momentum, look for a push into the resistance cluster between 0.6543 and 0.6548. Breaking out of .6548 will change the main trend to the upside and could trigger a peak at .6631.

Downside scenario

A sustained move below .6465 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, expect selling to eventually extend to the minor pivot at 0.6340.

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